Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour (Reforge)

""Everyone's always complaining, SEO's dead, it can't grow, word of mouth is so hard. All of the ingredients for a new distribution platform are essentially happening. My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT. There's a bunch of signals that they're about to launch that. This is a huge opportunity for companies to get on it. It ends up being a prisoner's dilemma. Don't trick yourself into thinking that you can't play the game.""

"My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT. In some ways that people probably already think it's happening. In some ways that it won't. But the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about."

"Step zero is about the competitive market being met, the conditions being met. There's consensus that there is going to be this new huge category. Think social, think mobile. And in this case, these AI chat platforms like ChatGPT or Claude. There's consensus about that, but there's no clear winner yet."

"Facebook went to third-party developers and said, OK, we've created this canvas. You can put anything in the canvas you want - an app, a game, whatever. You can monetize in any way you want. We just want this sidebar real estate on the ads. That's what we're really interested in."

"Eventually, these companies started suppressing access to all of the organic channels that they had. They went all the way towards absorbing the highest use cases into their own first party platform - things like events, photos, all those types of things. And basically shut down the platform for dead."

""I want to be very clear on that because I think, you know, a lot of this cycle happens because of competitive and capitalistic like dynamics and pressures. It's the same environment that enables like creating amazing new companies right here in the US. So and there's there's like two sides of the coin. And so you go through this cycle because it's a competitive environment. You're trying to figure out how to beat competitors. And this is one of the strategies to beat competitors. But at some point, like you just have to continue growing. You still have you have to grow those dollars like the market does not reward flat companies. If anybody's noticed, like you have to keep growing.""

""Yeah. And so it'll pull everyone in this direction, even if they maybe don't they want to avoid it. Capitalism is how capitalism works. They're playing you. So you need to play them like that. That might be a little a little sadistic or something. But but that is that is business.""

""So many companies got completely killed during the crash of the Facebook social platform. Apple's 30% tax basically destroyed a bunch of types of applications and business models because you feel like it just wasn't margin effective. Like all, so many companies built on, you know, SEO loops. That are in serious, serious trouble right now if that's their only channel.""

""And what you're saying essentially is ChatGPT, potentially some other platform maybe, is about to enter this mode. We're in that competitive environment. Like we said, like all those players, we've talked about chat GPT, Claude, Gemini, all these folks there, they are battling it out. Right. And, and we've seen this with, you know, the talent wards, especially over the past, you know, month, month or so. And, and so there's no clear winner yet, but there's consensus around, uh, the category. The second thing is then, okay, what's the moat? Has the moat been identified and who seems to have identified at the first or as furthest alone? I think there's, uh, you know, my hypothesis, and I think there's a lot more consensus around this now than there might've even been three months ago is that the moat is really about context and memory.""

""The AI technology shift has been a technology shift that has not come with a distribution shift yet. But all the conditions for a new distribution platform to emerge are essentially happening. And so I think we're at an inflection point where we're going to see this emerge really fast.""

""And so, um, the, the data that DD published, uh, clearly showed that both the retention curves, uh, which I know you and I have both written about at, you know, at exhaustion, um, level off at significant portions higher than all the other platforms, as well as those retention curves have been shifting up dramatically over time. You can start to see, uh, the effects of, of memory and they have the very elusive smile curve, right? The ones that you just like, and the only other times I've seen, you know, all of those dynamics very few times in my career. And they tend to be the folks like Slack and in like all of the big winners. It's just like, so elusive. And the smile curve, just to, just to people haven't done it, that is essentially retention goes up over time. It goes down a little bit and then you come back to it and you use it more. Yeah, that's right. And that's usually the result of, um, some type of network of factor or something else.""

"Um, the third piece is that, and they haven't really hidden these, but there's all sorts of signals that they're about to launch a third party platform. I've seen multiple postings on like product manager, engineering roles, all that kind of stuff for, you know, quote unquote agent platform and all those pieces. And so, um, it feels pretty inevitable that they will, one of these players will need to launch a third party platform in order to, you know, serve all the possible use cases on, you know, on these tools."

"Well, um, the problem with that is like, I think ChatGPT at this point has like at least a 10X difference on MAU. So if you're a developer, right, and you're comparing those two platforms and you're saying, and you're looking at it and you're like, well, ChatGPT has 10X the number of users and better retention engagement. It's like, what's the, what's the logical choice of which one you're going to prioritize your scarce resources on. Right."

"They're sitting at that level, but I don't know what they're doing. They're sitting at that level, but I don't know what they're doing. It's like from an execution standpoint, maybe they're going to surprise us with something crazy magical. Uh, but I haven't, we haven't seen any external signals around this."

""ChatGPT’s product retention curves are a product manager's wet dream. It's unlike anything we've seen before. And it tells you the power behind this new platform shift. The users stick around, they come back repeatedly, which is massive for growth and distribution.""

Why does Brian Balfour believe that ChatGPT will be the next major distribution platform?

Brian points out that all the necessary ingredients for a new distribution platform are currently coalescing around ChatGPT. He notes significant signals indicating ChatGPT’s imminent platform launch within six months. Unlike traditional channels facing saturation, ChatGPT offers exceptional product retention and user engagement. The platform shift mirrors historical technology cycles where early movers capture outsized growth. Ultimately, adopting ChatGPT integration is no longer optional if companies want to meet evolving customer expectations and compete effectively.

What does the concept of 'escape velocity' mean in the context of startup growth and distribution?

Escape velocity refers to the critical momentum startups must achieve in distribution to prevent incumbents from copying and overtaking them. Brian discusses how historically, startups that secure distribution early can build a defensible growth lead. However, the window to achieve this momentum is shrinking due to faster technology and platform shifts. Startups must move swiftly and decisively by picking platforms like ChatGPT and going all-in. Without escape velocity, startups risk being eclipsed in hyper-competitive markets.

How have traditional growth channels changed, and why is this significant for businesses?

Traditional channels such as SEO, organic social media, paid growth, and sales have become increasingly saturated and less effective. Algorithm shifts on major social platforms reduce organic traffic capacity, forcing companies to pay more or find alternatives. This saturation heightens the cost and difficulty of sustaining user acquisition through old channels. Consequently, companies must explore emerging platforms like ChatGPT, which promise new engagement models and growth opportunities. This change mandates strategic pivots and reallocation of growth efforts.

What role does AI play as a 'spark plug' in accelerating growth and competition?

AI serves as an innovation accelerator, dramatically speeding up software development and product iterations. Brian describes AI tools like Cursor overtaking established products within months as evidence of AI’s catalytic effect. This acceleration intensifies competition, particularly at the startup level, forcing companies to innovate faster and adapt continually. AI-generated code, agent automation, and instruction-tuning reduce time to market, making growth cycles faster and more volatile. Firms that harness AI strategically can outpace rivals and capture market share swiftly.