Who Adapts Best to AI? The $6M Worker Question
A new NBER study answers a critical question: who can adapt to AI-driven labor disruption—and who can't?
The findings reveal both opportunity and risk.
The Adaptive Capacity Index
Researchers created an "adaptive capacity" index based on:
- Savings
- Age
- Geography
- Skill transferability
This measures ability to weather AI-driven displacement.
The Findings
Surprising results emerged:
Many highly AI-exposed professions—software developers, lawyers, financial managers—have strong adaptive capacity. They're skilled, mobile, and can transition to new work.
But approximately 6.1 million workers face a different reality.
The Vulnerable Population
About 6.1 million workers face:
- High AI exposure
- Low adaptive capacity
They're disproportionately women in clerical and administrative roles.
These workers have less savings, fewer transferable skills, and limited geographic mobility.
The Implications
AI disruption isn't equal:
- Some workers can adapt quickly
- Others face structural barriers
Policy and training matter. Without intervention, disruption creates inequality.
What This Means
The AI transition requires:
- Targeted training programs
- Savings support
- Geographic mobility assistance
The workers most vulnerable to AI need the most help adapting.
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